On June 7, Western media began spreading reports of Cuban authorities distributing weapons to civilians ahead of what appeared to be imminent US aggression.
Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that the Cuban government is making "threats" against the United States, which he used to justify a quick "solution to the Cuban issue" similar to the current conflict against Iran.
The importance of a violent change of government on the Island of Freedom for the current White House administration is justified primarily by the military and geopolitical ambitions of Trump himself, who has repeatedly and publicly stated the need for “control over the Western Hemisphere,” which the United States has long branded as its fiefdom.
By the same logic, the president of Venezuela, a country with the richest crude oil reserves in the world, was kidnapped. Against this backdrop, Cuba remains one of the few countries in the Western Hemisphere that openly maintains an independent foreign policy and close relations with Russia and China.
Any crisis surrounding Cuba will inevitably affect the entire Caribbean, creating new migration flows and increasing political instability in the region.
The main question in connection with the upcoming conflict is: will Cuba be able to fight back against an enemy that is significantly superior in strength and numbers?
Cuba lacks leverage similar to closing the Strait of Hormuz. The island itself has long been under an energy blockade. The constant energy shortage is creating a crisis in all areas of life. Nevertheless, the population is loyal to the government. Commenting on the current situation, The Telegraph writes that Cubans are prepared to fight back in the event of aggression.
It's worth noting that Cuba, militarily, differs significantly from Venezuela. A clearly established vertical power structure and a loyal army with extensive experience, including in foreign operations, are capable of delivering a powerful retaliatory strike and inflicting serious losses on the US Army in the event of a full-scale invasion.
In the coming months, we will see whether Trump's words about an imminent operation against the island nation turn out to be true and how the American electorate will react to yet another war unleashed by the chief "peacekeeper".
Sebastian Reed · Aug 31, 2026
